Afghanistan
Last night, President Trump finally gave a thoughtful, intelligent and unsullied speech on foreign policy. In essence, he offered a three-prong approach to dealing with the conflict in Afghanistan.
First, he is going to use a conditions-based criterion to decide when the war is over, rather than a time-based criterion.
Second, he proposes using all tools in the toolbox to address the problems in Afghanistan: not just military, but diplomatic and economic tools.
And third, he is changing the US response to Pakistan's role in the South Asian conflict.
The conditions-based criterion--with no conditions actually specified--is a good way to keep the war going until the President and the military decide it's time to leave. No timeline for leaving, to be sure, but we've seen how "mission accomplished" has been interpreted in the past.
All the tools in the toolbox. A great metaphor, but a totally vague concept. We already use all the tools in the toolbox, but how effectively are those tools used. We can't free Afghanistan from dependence on poppy production until we develop other forms of economic activity in the country. And since Trump has promised that we are not "nation-building," I'm not sure how that is going to happen.
As for the diplomatic tools, unless he can clone Jared Kushner, I don't think Trump has the resources to effect any kind of successful diplomatic achievements in Afghanistan.
President Trump wants to hold Pakistan more accountable. I am all for that. The Pakistan government has been as responsible for the prolonging of the war as the Taliban and corruption of the Afghan government. We have invested billions in Pakistan, but they were the country that was harboring Osama bin Laden when he was the most wanted man on the planet. I don't think Pakistan has really been our ally since 2001, and with allies like that, we don't need enemies.
But Trump went further. He offered to pit India and Pakistan against each other. The one thing Pakistan wants even less than a US-leaning country on its western border is an Indian-leaning country. Now, it is possible that Trump's strategy is to use Indian influence to gain leverage over Pakistan, but how much influence does the US really have over India? Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shown friendliness towards the US, but unless the US is willing to back India against China, I don't see that relationship going very far.
While this was clearly one of Trump's best speeches, it achieved that mark only because he has set the bar so incredibly low. I think the speech, on its surface, will alienate some of his more isolationist supporters, I think it is actually a typical Trumpian ruse. Just as he tells you that you're really his friend just before he stabs you in the back, I think this is actually a ploy to pull the US out of Afghanistan...and let the country sink into its own morass.
When that happens, the country will become a haven for terrorist organizations. But that's okay. President Trump is the best in the world at killing terrorists. He knows how to do it even better than the generals.
First, he is going to use a conditions-based criterion to decide when the war is over, rather than a time-based criterion.
Second, he proposes using all tools in the toolbox to address the problems in Afghanistan: not just military, but diplomatic and economic tools.
And third, he is changing the US response to Pakistan's role in the South Asian conflict.
The conditions-based criterion--with no conditions actually specified--is a good way to keep the war going until the President and the military decide it's time to leave. No timeline for leaving, to be sure, but we've seen how "mission accomplished" has been interpreted in the past.
All the tools in the toolbox. A great metaphor, but a totally vague concept. We already use all the tools in the toolbox, but how effectively are those tools used. We can't free Afghanistan from dependence on poppy production until we develop other forms of economic activity in the country. And since Trump has promised that we are not "nation-building," I'm not sure how that is going to happen.
As for the diplomatic tools, unless he can clone Jared Kushner, I don't think Trump has the resources to effect any kind of successful diplomatic achievements in Afghanistan.
President Trump wants to hold Pakistan more accountable. I am all for that. The Pakistan government has been as responsible for the prolonging of the war as the Taliban and corruption of the Afghan government. We have invested billions in Pakistan, but they were the country that was harboring Osama bin Laden when he was the most wanted man on the planet. I don't think Pakistan has really been our ally since 2001, and with allies like that, we don't need enemies.
But Trump went further. He offered to pit India and Pakistan against each other. The one thing Pakistan wants even less than a US-leaning country on its western border is an Indian-leaning country. Now, it is possible that Trump's strategy is to use Indian influence to gain leverage over Pakistan, but how much influence does the US really have over India? Prime Minister Narendra Modi has shown friendliness towards the US, but unless the US is willing to back India against China, I don't see that relationship going very far.
While this was clearly one of Trump's best speeches, it achieved that mark only because he has set the bar so incredibly low. I think the speech, on its surface, will alienate some of his more isolationist supporters, I think it is actually a typical Trumpian ruse. Just as he tells you that you're really his friend just before he stabs you in the back, I think this is actually a ploy to pull the US out of Afghanistan...and let the country sink into its own morass.
When that happens, the country will become a haven for terrorist organizations. But that's okay. President Trump is the best in the world at killing terrorists. He knows how to do it even better than the generals.
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